Current WXSIM Forecast

Tuesday, 17-Jul-2018 08:00 am

Today

Thunder storm
Thunder storm
High: 80°
Tonight

Thunder storm
Thunder storm
Low: 65°
Wednesday

Thunder storm
Thunder storm
High: 82°
Wednesday
night
Thunder storm
Thunder storm
Low: 70°
Thursday

Sunny
Sunny
High: 87°
Thursday
night
Thunder storm
Thunder storm
Low: 71°
Friday

Sunny
Sunny
High: 84°
Friday
night
Clear
Clear
Low: 65°
Saturday

Sunny
Sunny
High: 84°

Current NWS Forecast

Tue, 17-Jul-2018 7:35am CDT

Today

Today: Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Slight Chance Showers And TStorms then Chance Showers And TStorms

Hi 84 °F
Tonight

Tonight: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Chance Showers And TStorms

Lo 67 °F
Wednesday

Wednesday: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Chance Showers And TStorms

Hi 84 °F
Wednesday
Night
Wednesday Night: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Chance Showers And TStorms

Lo 69 °F
Thursday

Thursday: Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Mostly Sunny
Slight Chance Showers And TStorms then Mostly Sunny

Hi 92 °F
Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Chance Showers And TStorms

Lo 68 °F
Friday

Friday: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Sunny
Chance Showers And TStorms then Sunny

Hi 88 °F
Friday
Night
Friday Night: Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear

Lo 65 °F
Saturday

Saturday: Sunny
Sunny

Hi 87 °F



WxSim & NWS Temperature Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)

2AM Forecasts

Updated: 07-17-18 at 2:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-17-18 68   69 84   83 68   68 86   83 68   71 90   89 67   70 87   86
07-16-18 66 75.3°F 70 87 91.8 °F 90 67   66 83   85 66   67 85   85 68   71 89   91
07-15-18 67 74.7°F 65 89 95.3 °F 91 67 75.3°F 68 85 91.8 °F 90 65   69 85   89 67   69 83   85
07-14-18 71 69.4°F 68 85 93.4 °F 87 70 74.7°F 63 89 95.3 °F 89 69 75.3°F 68 84 91.8 °F 86 65   65 86   87
07-13-18 76 71.2°F 77 90 ↓ 93.2 °F 99 71 69.4°F 73 89 93.4 °F 83 71 74.7°F 73 90 95.3 °F 84 69 75.3°F 69 86 91.8 °F 83
07-12-18 76 77.5°F 79 96 99.0 °F 98 73 71.2°F 76 94 93.2 °F 95 72 69.4°F 75 90 93.4 °F 87 72 74.7°F 73 91 95.3 °F 84
07-11-18 72 82.6°F 77 96 97.1 °F 95 75 77.5°F 74 96 99.0 °F 96 74 71.2°F 73 92 93.2 °F 94 72 69.4°F 72 92 93.4 °F 83
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 2 1 2 2 0 1 2 0 2 1 1 0 1 1 0
% Succ 33.3   33.3 16.7   33.3 40.0   0.0 20.0   40.0     50.0 25.0   25.0     33.3 33.3   0.0
Ave Error 5.9   4.9 4.5   3.6 3.8   6.2 4.3   4.7 3.9   4.1 4.4   6.1 3.9   3.5 3.8   10.2
Net Error -3.8   -2.5 -4.5   -1.6 -2.4   -2.8 -3.9   -3.9 -1.2   -0.4 -4.4   -5.7 -2.1   -1.8 -3.8   -10.2
Std Dev 3.9   3.5 2.7   2.4 3.3   4.8 3.1   4.2 3.6   3.9 4.2   5.3 3.9   3.5 3.8   10.2

5AM Forecasts

Updated: 07-17-18 at 5:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-17-18 71 ↑   82 84   67 67   83 84   70 69   90 92   70 68   86 88   65
07-16-18 69 91.8 °F 91 86 72.5°F 67 68   86 84   68 67   85 84   71 68   91 89   70
07-15-18 67 95.3 °F 91 89 72.5°F 67 66 91.8 °F 90 87 72.5°F 68 66   89 84   68 67   85 85   70
07-14-18 69 ↑ 93.4 °F 85 86 67.1°F 62 68 95.3 °F 87 90 72.5°F 69 68 91.8 °F 87 84 72.5°F 66 65   87 87   65
07-13-18 76 ↑ 93.2 °F 100 90 ↓ 68.4°F 74 71 93.4 °F 83 86 67.1°F 73 71 95.3 °F 84 90 72.5°F 69 70 91.8 °F 83 85 72.5°F 65
07-12-18 76 ↑ 99.0 °F 101 96 77.5°F 77 74 93.2 °F 99 92 68.4°F 74 72 93.4 °F 88 89 67.1°F 73 72 95.3 °F 84 89 72.5°F 74
07-11-18 72 ↑ 97.1 °F 97 96 79.6°F 76 75 99.0 °F 97 97 77.5°F 73 73 93.2 °F 93 93 68.4°F 72 72 93.4 °F 83 91 67.1°F 73
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 3 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
% Succ     50.0     16.7     40.0     0.0     25.0     0.0     0.0     33.3
Ave Error 23.5   3.7 17.6   4.3 23.7   5.7 18.8   4.8 22.4   5.4 18.9   4.9 22.2   10.2 17.6   5.0
Net Error -23.5   -0.8 17.6   -2.4 -23.7   -3.3 18.8   -0.2 -22.4   -5.4 18.9   -0.1 -22.2   -10.2 17.6   -0.0
Std Dev 10.1   3.1 7.6   2.5 15.1   4.7 12.1   3.1 19.4   4.7 16.8   4.3 22.2   10.2 17.6   5.0

8AM Forecasts

Updated: 07-17-18 at 8:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-17-18 84   80 67   65 84   82 69   70 92   87 68   71 88   84 65   65
07-16-18 87 91.8 °F 87 68 71.6°F 64 84   82 67   65 84   83 68   70 89   90 67   70
07-15-18 89 95.3 °F 89 66 71.6°F 64 87 91.8 °F 82 66 71.6°F 64 84   77 67   64 85   82 67   68
07-14-18 86 93.4 °F 83 68 66.8°F 61 90 95.3 °F 87 68 71.6°F 67 84 91.8 °F 85 65 71.6°F 65 87   77 67   65
07-13-18 92 ↓ 93.2 °F 91 71 67.7°F 71 86 93.4 °F 85 71 66.8°F 70 90 95.3 °F 87 70 71.6°F 71 85 91.8 °F 85 65 71.6°F 69
07-12-18 96 99.0 °F 95 74 77.5°F 74 92 ↓ 93.2 °F 96 72 67.7°F 73 89 93.4 °F 86 72 66.8°F 73 89 95.3 °F 89 69 71.6°F 71
07-11-18 96 97.1 °F 93 75 77.5°F 74 97 99.0 °F 93 73 77.5°F 74 93 93.2 °F 93 72 67.7°F 73 91 93.4 °F 81 72 66.8°F 74
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1
% Succ 33.3   0.0 16.7   0.0 40.0   0.0     0.0 25.0   25.0 25.0   25.0     0.0     33.3
Ave Error 4.0   5.3 3.3   5.2 4.1   7.1 4.4   4.8 4.4   5.7 4.4   4.7 5.2   8.5 4.8   3.5
Net Error -4.0   -5.3 -1.8   -4.1 -4.1   -5.9 -1.0   -1.4 -4.4   -5.7 0.3   1.1 -5.2   -8.5 -1.3   1.3
Std Dev 2.7   3.3 1.9   2.8 3.1   4.7 2.9   3.4 4.2   4.9 4.0   4.2 5.2   8.5 4.8   3.5

11AM Forecasts

Updated: 07-16-18 at 11:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-16-18 87   85 68   63 84   85 67   65 84   83 68   69 89   90 67   71
07-15-18 89 95.3 °F 93 66 71.6°F 71 87   84 66   66 84   79 67   65 85   82 67   69
07-14-18 86 93.4 °F 85 68 66.8°F 64 90 95.3 °F 88 68 71.6°F 66 84   85 65   64 87   77 67   65
07-13-18 92 ↓ 93.2 °F 92 71 67.6°F 73 86 93.4 °F 87 71 66.8°F 72 90 95.3 °F 89 70 71.6°F 72 85   86 65   69
07-12-18 96 99.0 °F 97 74 77.5°F 76 92 ↓ 93.2 °F 97 72 67.6°F 74 89 93.4 °F 87 72 66.8°F 73 89 95.3 °F 90 69 71.6°F 72
07-11-18 96 97.1 °F 96 75 77.5°F 77 97 99.0 °F 94 73 77.5°F 75 93 93.2 °F 93 72 67.6°F 74 91 93.4 °F 82 72 66.8°F 74
07-10-18 95 98.8 °F 96 72 76.9°F 74 96 97.1 °F 93 75 77.5°F 75 95 99.0 °F 97 74 77.5°F 73 92 93.2 °F 91 73 67.6°F 76
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 3 1 3 3 0 0 0 1 2 1 1 1 0 0 1
% Succ 33.3   50.0 16.7   50.0 60.0   0.0     0.0 25.0   50.0 25.0   25.0 33.3   0.0     33.3
Ave Error 3.8   3.0 3.5   2.3 3.4   5.3 3.8   4.4 3.5   3.7 3.7   4.4 3.3   6.3 4.4   5.3
Net Error -3.8   -3.0 -2.0   -0.5 -3.4   -3.8 -0.4   0.2 -3.5   -3.7 1.1   2.1 -3.3   -6.3 2.7   5.3
Std Dev 2.8   2.8 2.0   1.9 3.1   3.6 2.4   3.0 3.1   3.5 3.3   4.3 3.3   6.3 4.4   5.3

2PM Forecasts

Updated: 07-16-18 at 2:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-16-18 87   89 68   68 84   85 67   67 84   85 68   71 89   89 67   73
07-15-18 92 95.3 °F 94 66 71.6°F 74 87   89 66   71 84   78 67   71 85   83 67   72
07-14-18 86 93.4 °F 90 68 66.8°F 70 90 95.3 °F 89 68 71.6°F 70 84   89 65   66 87   77 67   66
07-13-18 92 ↓ 93.2 °F 94 71 67.6°F 74 86 93.4 °F 85 71 66.8°F 71 90 95.3 °F 88 70 71.6°F 69 85   84 65   68
07-12-18 96 99.0 °F 98 75 77.5°F 77 91 ↓ 93.2 °F 95 72 67.6°F 74 89 93.4 °F 87 72 66.8°F 74 89 95.3 °F 89 69 71.6°F 69
07-11-18 96 97.1 °F 96 76 77.5°F 76 97 99.0 °F 96 73 77.5°F 75 94 93.2 °F 97 72 67.6°F 74 90 93.4 °F 88 72 66.8°F 77
07-10-18 96 98.8 °F 100 72 76.9°F 77 96 97.1 °F 95 75 77.5°F 75 95 99.0 °F 96 74 77.5°F 75 92 93.2 °F 89 73 67.6°F 75
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 5 2 3 2 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0
% Succ 33.3   83.3 33.3   50.0 40.0   20.0     20.0 25.0   0.0 25.0   0.0 33.3   0.0     0.0
Ave Error 3.1   1.5 3.2   2.4 3.6   4.3 3.8   3.4 3.6   5.1 3.7   4.7 3.6   5.3 4.4   6.7
Net Error -3.1   -0.8 -1.7   1.7 -3.6   -3.6 -0.4   0.8 -3.2   -3.2 1.1   2.1 -3.6   -5.3 2.7   5.0
Std Dev 2.4   1.1 2.0   2.1 3.0   3.6 2.4   2.7 3.2   4.6 3.3   4.2 3.6   5.3 4.4   6.7

5PM Forecasts

Updated: 07-16-18 at 5:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-16-18 87   69 68   87 84   71 68   87 86   71 68   90 90   73 67   83
07-15-18 93 ↓ 71.6°F 72 66 95.3 °F 89 87   69 67   78 83   70 66   83 85   71 68   90
07-14-18 87 66.8°F 73 67 93.4 °F 90 89 71.6°F 71 67 95.3 °F 89 85   67 65   77 85   66 67   85
07-13-18 92 ↓ 67.6°F 70 71 93.2 °F 85 85 66.8°F 66 70 93.4 °F 88 89 71.6°F 68 69 95.3 °F 84 84   67 65   85
07-12-18 96 77.5°F 78 76 99.0 °F 95 90 ↓ 67.6°F 75 71 93.2 °F 87 89 66.8°F 74 71 93.4 °F 88 90 71.6°F 69 69 95.3 °F 83
07-11-18 96 77.5°F 77 76 97.1 °F 96 96 77.5°F 75 73 99.0 °F 95 94 67.6°F 73 72 93.2 °F 88 90 66.8°F 77 72 93.4 °F 93
07-10-18 96 76.9°F 77 72 98.8 °F 95 96 77.5°F 75 75 97.1 °F 96 96 77.5°F 75 74 99.0 °F 89 92 67.6°F 75 72 93.2 °F 84
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 4 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
% Succ     66.7     16.7     40.0     20.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     33.3
Ave Error 20.4   1.7 24.8   4.5 19.0   2.8 24.4   4.6 21.1   4.7 23.7   8.0 22.0   6.7 23.0   7.3
Net Error 20.4   1.5 -24.8   -4.5 19.0   0.2 -24.4   -4.6 21.1   1.6 -23.7   -8.0 22.0   5.0 -23.0   -7.3
Std Dev 8.5   2.2 10.5   2.9 12.1   3.0 15.6   3.1 18.4   4.1 20.6   7.1 22.0   6.7 23.0   7.3

8PM Forecasts

Updated: 07-16-18 at 8:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-16-18 68   71 84   89 68   70 86   86 68   71 90   92 67   71 87   83
07-15-18 66 71.6°F 73 87 95.3 °F 91 67   68 83   83 66   67 85   90 68   71 89   94
07-14-18 67 66.8°F 71 89 93.4 °F 91 67 71.6°F 70 85 95.3 °F 90 65   66 85   90 67   67 83   89
07-13-18 71 67.6°F 69 85 93.2 °F 88 70 66.8°F 66 89 93.4 °F 89 69 71.6°F 66 84 95.3 °F 89 65   66 86   83
07-12-18 76 77.5°F 80 90 ↓ 99.0 °F 96 71 67.6°F 76 89 93.2 °F 87 71 66.8°F 76 90 93.4 °F 87 69 71.6°F 70 86 95.3 °F 85
07-11-18 76 77.5°F 80 96 97.1 °F 98 73 77.5°F 77 94 99.0 °F 95 72 67.6°F 75 90 93.2 °F 84 72 66.8°F 73 91 93.4 °F 88
07-10-18 72 76.9°F 78 96 98.8 °F 97 75 77.5°F 76 96 97.1 °F 98 74 77.5°F 76 92 99.0 °F 95 72 67.6°F 73 92 93.2 °F 80
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 3 1 2 0 4 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0
% Succ 50.0   50.0 16.7   33.3     80.0 20.0   20.0     25.0     0.0     33.3 33.3   0.0
Ave Error 2.9   2.2 5.6   2.9 3.6   2.6 5.0   4.2 3.7   5.9 6.2   6.5 4.1   4.4 4.3   9.6
Net Error -1.7   2.2 -5.6   -2.6 -1.0   0.8 -5.0   -3.8 0.6   2.4 -6.2   -6.5 2.3   3.3 -4.3   -9.6
Std Dev 2.1   1.3 3.6   1.8 2.4   3.2 4.0   2.8 3.2   5.1 6.0   5.6 4.1   4.4 4.3   9.6

11PM Forecasts

Updated: 07-16-18 at 11:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
07-16-18 68   70 84   88 68   68 86   85 68   71 90   91 67   71 87   83
07-15-18 66 76.7°F 71 87 95.3 °F 90 67   67 83   80 66   66 85   89 68   71 89   93
07-14-18 67 77.5°F 67 89 93.4 °F 91 67 76.7°F 68 85 95.3 °F 90 65   64 85   90 67   67 83   89
07-13-18 71 74.4°F 69 85 93.2 °F 88 70 77.5°F 66 89 93.4 °F 89 69 76.7°F 66 84 95.3 °F 89 65   66 86   83
07-12-18 76 74.9°F 79 90 ↓ 99.0 °F 96 71 74.4°F 74 89 93.2 °F 81 71 77.5°F 73 90 93.4 °F 87 69 76.7°F 69 86 95.3 °F 84
07-11-18 76 77.5°F 78 96 97.1 °F 98 73 74.9°F 76 94 99.0 °F 94 72 74.4°F 74 90 93.2 °F 84 72 77.5°F 72 91 93.4 °F 88
07-10-18 72 85.3°F 75 96 98.8 °F 96 75 77.5°F 76 96 97.1 °F 97 74 74.9°F 75 92 99.0 °F 94 72 74.4°F 72 92 93.2 °F 80
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 0
% Succ 33.3   16.7 16.7   16.7 20.0   60.0 20.0   20.0 25.0   50.0     0.0     0.0 33.3   0.0
Ave Error 6.8   6.1 5.6   3.3 5.0   4.6 5.0   5.4 4.4   3.9 6.2   6.7 5.2   5.2 4.3   10.0
Net Error -6.4   -4.6 -5.6   -3.0 -5.0   -4.2 -5.0   -5.4 -4.4   -3.9 -6.2   -6.7 -5.2   -5.2 -4.3   -10.0
Std Dev 4.9   3.9 3.6   2.0 4.0   5.0 4.0   4.6 4.1   4.8 6.0   5.8 5.2   5.2 4.3   10.0

Forecast Comparison Script Created by Jim McMurray of Juneau County Weather.
WXSIM is a product of Tom Ehrensberger.