Current WXSIM Forecast

Tuesday, 20-Feb-2018 08:00 pm

Tonight

Partly Cloudy
Cold!
Partly Cloudy
Cold!
Low: 6°
Wednesday

Partly Cloudy
Cold!
Partly Cloudy
Cold!
High: 35°
Wednesday
night
Snow
Cold!
Snow
Cold!
Low: 21°
Thursday

Snow
Cold!
Snow
Cold!
High: 33°
Thursday
night
Snow
Snow
Low: 26°
Friday

Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
High: 36°
Friday
night
Rain and Snow
Cold!
Rain and Snow
Cold!
Low: 27°
Saturday

Rain and Snow
Cold!
Rain and Snow
Cold!
High: 36°
Saturday
night
Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
Low: 23°

Current NWS Forecast

Tue, 20-Feb-2018 12:47pm CST

Tonight

Tonight: Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear

Lo 4 °F ↑
Wednesday

Wednesday: Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny

Hi 28 °F ↓
Wednesday
Night
Wednesday Night: Chance Snow Showers then Chance Light Snow
Chance Snow Showers then Chance Light Snow

Lo 17 °F
Thursday

Thursday: Chance Freezing Rain then Chance Freezing Drizzle
Chance Freezing Rain then Chance Freezing Drizzle

Hi 32 °F
Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: Chance Freezing Drizzle then Chance Snow Showers
Chance Freezing Drizzle then Chance Snow Showers

Lo 22 °F
Friday

Friday: Chance Snow Showers then Partly Sunny
Chance Snow Showers then Partly Sunny

Hi 38 °F
Friday
Night
Friday Night: Mostly Cloudy then Light Snow Likely
Mostly Cloudy then Light Snow Likely

Lo 22 °F
Saturday

Saturday: Light Snow Likely
Light Snow Likely

Hi 39 °F
Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: Slight Chance Rain And Snow then Partly Cloudy
Slight Chance Rain And Snow then Partly Cloudy

Lo 22 °F



WxSim & NWS Temperature Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)

2AM Forecasts

Updated: 02-20-18 at 2:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
02-20-18 19   17 25 ↓   24 7   8 28   33 15   21 32   34 21   29 38   38
02-19-18 27 21.1°F 28 28 36.3 °F 37 19   26 24   36 6   14 27   34 12   15 36   29
02-18-18 29 ↑ 32.1°F 34 63 ↓ 57.6 °F 61 30 ↑ 21.1°F 36 32 36.3 °F 43 17   28 22   31 6   12 28   34
02-17-18 28 32.2°F 28 47 ↓ 51.9 °F 55 27 ↑ 32.1°F 27 60 57.6 °F 63 31 21.1°F 41 33 36.3 °F 50 16   35 25   37
02-16-18 13 28.4°F 12 31 ↓ 34.4 °F 40 23 ↑ 32.2°F 22 47 51.9 °F 50 27 32.1°F 23 54 57.6 °F 61 28 21.1°F 33 32 36.3 °F 41
02-15-18 28 19.3°F 36 44 ↓ 47.1 °F 54 13 28.4°F 25 30 34.4 °F 42 20 32.2°F 25 45 51.9 °F 45 22 32.1°F 21 54 57.6 °F 61
02-14-18 21 37.8°F 25 48 ↓ 48.8 °F 65 30 19.3°F 35 43 47.1 °F 56 12 28.4°F 22 27 34.4 °F 41 18 32.2°F 27 45 51.9 °F 47
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
% Succ     16.7 16.7   16.7     0.0     20.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Ave Error 9.0   9.8 4.3   6.0 9.9   9.9 4.0   6.1 10.9   10.7 5.3   7.7 10.4   9.4 4.9   4.3
Net Error -4.2   -1.3 -2.5   6.0 -2.0   2.4 -3.1   5.3 -6.0   -0.7 -5.3   4.2 -5.8   -1.5 -4.9   1.1
Std Dev 5.6   7.0 2.5   3.6 6.6   7.0 2.7   4.3 9.5   10.3 4.7   7.3 10.4   9.4 4.9   4.3

5AM Forecasts

Updated: 02-20-18 at 5:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
02-20-18 19   22 24 ↓   10 4   30 28   19 17   32 32   25 22   37 38   22
02-19-18 27 ↑ 36.3 °F 33 28 19.5°F 24 20   32 24   15 7   32 27   16 14   28 35   18
02-18-18 29 ↑ 57.6 °F 59 61 ↓ 27.5°F 35 31 36.3 °F 42 32 19.5°F 28 18   33 22   16 6   35 28   16
02-17-18 28 51.9 °F 50 48 ↓ 32.2°F 28 29 ↑ 57.6 °F 61 61 27.5°F 33 31 36.3 °F 40 33 19.5°F 26 17   30 25   10
02-16-18 14 34.4 °F 40 32 ↓ 28.4°F 23 24 51.9 °F 53 47 32.2°F 23 26 57.6 °F 61 58 27.5°F 35 26 36.3 °F 41 33 19.5°F 25
02-15-18 28 47.1 °F 55 44 ↓ 15.3°F 24 14 34.4 °F 42 31 28.4°F 26 21 51.9 °F 49 46 32.2°F 23 22 57.6 °F 62 55 27.5°F 30
02-14-18 21 ↑ 48.8 °F 67 50 ↓ 37.8°F 35 28 47.1 °F 59 43 15.3°F 28 12 34.4 °F 45 27 28.4°F 28 19 51.9 °F 47 43 32.2°F 22
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
% Succ     33.3     0.0     20.0     0.0     0.0 25.0   25.0     0.0     0.0
Ave Error 21.5   6.4 17.1   5.5 20.3   5.9 18.2   7.7 22.6   5.2 14.8   5.9 26.3   4.7 17.3   6.1
Net Error -21.5   4.7 17.1   1.4 -20.3   5.9 18.2   3.0 -22.6   3.7 14.1   1.1 -26.3   1.4 17.3   -0.7
Std Dev 10.6   4.0 12.6   2.8 15.3   4.5 13.7   5.0 21.3   4.5 12.8   5.1 26.3   4.7 17.3   6.1

8AM Forecasts

Updated: 02-20-18 at 8:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
02-20-18 24 ↓   24 4   8 28 ↓   32 17   21 32   32 22   23 38   38 22   30
02-19-18 28 36.3 °F 35 20 15.7°F 24 24 ↓   33 7   15 27   33 14   16 35   28 22   18
02-18-18 61 ↓ 57.6 °F 60 31 23.7°F 35 32 ↓ 36.3 °F 43 18 15.7°F 28 22   33 6   16 28   35 12   16
02-17-18 48 ↓ 51.9 °F 48 29 ↑ 32.2°F 27 61 ↓ 57.6 °F 61 31 23.7°F 33 33 36.3 °F 40 17 15.7°F 26 25   30 8   10
02-16-18 32 ↓ 34.4 °F 39 24 28.4°F 22 47 ↓ 51.9 °F 52 26 32.2°F 23 58 57.6 °F 61 26 23.7°F 35 33 36.3 °F 41 14 15.7°F 25
02-15-18 44 ↓ 47.1 °F 56 14 12.7°F 25 31 ↓ 34.4 °F 44 21 28.4°F 26 46 51.9 °F 50 22 32.2°F 23 55 57.6 °F 62 31 23.7°F 30
02-14-18 50 ↓ 48.8 °F 64 28 37.8°F 34 43 ↓ 47.1 °F 58 12 12.7°F 28 27 34.4 °F 44 19 28.4°F 28 43 51.9 °F 47 23 32.2°F 22
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0
% Succ 16.7   16.7 16.7   0.0     20.0 20.0   0.0 25.0   25.0 25.0   25.0     0.0 33.3   0.0
Ave Error 3.7   6.1 5.1   7.9 4.0   6.1 4.8   9.7 4.3   4.7 5.8   7.8 4.9   4.7 6.1   8.6
Net Error -2.2   4.3 -0.8   2.8 -2.7   6.1 -0.9   5.1 -4.1   3.7 -4.0   3.0 -4.9   1.4 -1.2   1.8
Std Dev 2.5   3.8 2.9   4.1 2.6   4.9 3.5   6.3 3.7   4.1 5.5   6.9 4.9   4.7 6.1   8.6

11AM Forecasts

Updated: 02-20-18 at 11:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
02-20-18 24 ↓   22 4   8 28 ↓   30 17   18 32   32 22   25 38   36 22   21
02-19-18 28 36.3 °F 29 23 15.6°F 21 24 ↓   30 7   12 27   31 14   16 35   26 22   23
02-18-18 61 ↓ 57.6 °F 55 31 23.2°F 32 32 ↓ 36.3 °F 39 18 15.6°F 26 22   29 6   13 28   34 12   13
02-17-18 48 ↓ 51.9 °F 50 29 ↑ 32.2°F 28 61 ↓ 57.6 °F 62 31 23.2°F 34 33 36.3 °F 39 17 15.6°F 27 25   32 8   10
02-16-18 33 ↓ 34.4 °F 35 24 28.4°F 19 47 ↓ 51.9 °F 47 26 32.2°F 23 58 57.6 °F 61 26 23.2°F 32 33 36.3 °F 38 14 15.6°F 22
02-15-18 44 ↓ 47.1 °F 53 14 12.7°F 23 31 ↓ 34.4 °F 43 21 28.4°F 25 46 51.9 °F 51 22 32.2°F 24 55 57.6 °F 64 31 23.2°F 24
02-14-18 50 ↓ 48.8 °F 61 28 37.8°F 34 43 ↓ 47.1 °F 59 12 12.7°F 25 27 34.4 °F 43 19 28.4°F 26 43 51.9 °F 53 23 32.2°F 22
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 2 1 1
% Succ 33.3   33.3 16.7   0.0     0.0 20.0   0.0 25.0   25.0 25.0   0.0     66.7 33.3   33.3
Ave Error 3.6   5.1 5.7   7.0 4.0   6.5 4.9   9.2 4.3   3.9 6.0   7.7 4.9   3.1 6.2   5.8
Net Error -2.0   1.2 -0.1   1.2 -2.7   4.5 -0.8   4.2 -4.1   3.5 -3.9   2.4 -4.9   3.1 -1.0   -1.0
Std Dev 2.6   3.4 3.3   3.6 2.6   4.6 3.6   5.9 3.7   3.4 5.6   6.9 4.9   3.1 6.2   5.8

2PM Forecasts

Updated: 02-20-18 at 2:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
02-20-18 24 ↓   23 4 ↑   8 28 ↓   31 17   19 32   33 22   27 38   38 22   23
02-19-18 27 36.3 °F 25 23 15.6°F 21 24 ↓   30 7   13 27   32 14   16 35   26 22   24
02-18-18 61 ↓ 57.6 °F 59 31 23.2°F 33 32 ↓ 36.3 °F 39 18 15.6°F 25 24   28 6   13 27   33 12   12
02-17-18 48 ↓ 51.9 °F 51 29 ↑ 32.2°F 27 63 ↓ 57.6 °F 61 31 23.2°F 33 33 36.3 °F 39 17 15.6°F 27 22   31 6   10
02-16-18 33 ↓ 34.4 °F 33 25 ↑ 28.4°F 19 47 ↓ 51.9 °F 47 27 32.2°F 23 60 57.6 °F 62 31 23.2°F 32 34 36.3 °F 39 16 15.6°F 22
02-15-18 44 ↓ 47.1 °F 47 14 12.7°F 23 31 ↓ 34.4 °F 43 21 28.4°F 25 46 51.9 °F 51 22 32.2°F 24 55 57.6 °F 64 31 23.2°F 24
02-14-18 50 ↓ 48.8 °F 61 28 37.8°F 35 43 ↓ 47.1 °F 58 12 12.7°F 25 27 34.4 °F 43 19 28.4°F 26 43 51.9 °F 53 23 32.2°F 22
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 2 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1
% Succ 33.3   66.7 16.7   0.0     0.0 20.0   0.0     25.0 25.0   0.0     33.3 33.3   33.3
Ave Error 3.7   4.6 5.5   7.2 4.4   6.1 4.7   8.8 4.8   4.2 7.2   7.7 4.6   3.4 5.8   5.8
Net Error -2.2   -0.0 0.0   1.4 -2.3   4.1 -0.6   3.8 -3.6   3.7 -2.6   2.4 -4.6   3.4 -0.3   -1.0
Std Dev 2.9   4.5 3.3   3.7 2.8   4.4 3.4   5.6 4.2   3.7 6.9   6.9 4.6   3.4 5.8   5.8

5PM Forecasts

Updated: 02-20-18 at 5:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
02-20-18 24 ↓   7 4 ↑   34 28 ↓   20 17   30 32   22 22   34 38   26 22   35
02-19-18 27 15.6°F 17 20 36.3 °F 28 24 ↓   11 7   34 28   23 15   32 32   27 21   36
02-18-18 61 ↓ 23.2°F 31 29 57.6 °F 38 30 ↓ 15.6°F 26 19 36.3 °F 30 24   12 6   33 27   18 12   40
02-17-18 48 ↓ 32.2°F 28 29 ↑ 51.9 °F 62 63 ↓ 23.2°F 35 30 57.6 °F 41 32 15.6°F 24 17 36.3 °F 29 22   10 6   35
02-16-18 33 ↓ 28.4°F 23 25 ↑ 34.4 °F 48 47 ↓ 32.2°F 25 27 51.9 °F 63 60 23.2°F 34 31 57.6 °F 38 34 15.6°F 20 16 36.3 °F 21
02-15-18 45 ↓ 12.7°F 18 13 47.1 °F 41 31 ↓ 28.4°F 23 23 34.4 °F 51 47 32.2°F 24 27 51.9 °F 62 54 23.2°F 25 28 57.6 °F 32
02-14-18 48 ↓ 37.8°F 33 28 48.8 °F 56 44 ↓ 12.7°F 26 13 47.1 °F 44 30 28.4°F 24 20 34.4 °F 45 45 32.2°F 18 22 51.9 °F 56
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
% Succ     16.7     0.0     0.0     0.0 25.0   0.0     0.0     33.3     0.0
Ave Error 18.7   4.8 22.0   10.8 20.6   9.6 23.1   10.7 17.4   8.0 21.3   11.9 20.7   6.8 26.6   15.0
Net Error 18.7   0.0 -22.0   -0.5 20.6   4.6 -23.1   0.3 17.4   1.7 -21.3   -1.6 20.7   -2.7 -26.6   -12.3
Std Dev 13.9   2.7 12.0   6.2 16.1   6.3 15.0   7.5 15.1   6.9 18.5   10.6 20.7   6.8 26.6   15.0

8PM Forecasts

Updated: 02-20-18 at 8:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
02-20-18 4 ↑   6 28 ↓   35 17   21 32   33 22   26 38   36 22   27 39   36
02-19-18 19 15.6°F 18 25 ↓ 36.3 °F 31 7   15 28   36 15   24 32   33 21   27 38   37
02-18-18 29 23.2°F 32 30 ↓ 57.6 °F 38 19 15.6°F 26 24 36.3 °F 30 6   12 27   34 12   18 36   40
02-17-18 29 ↑ 32.2°F 28 63 ↓ 51.9 °F 62 30 ↑ 23.2°F 35 32 57.6 °F 41 17 15.6°F 24 22 36.3 °F 27 6   11 28   36
02-16-18 23 ↑ 28.4°F 25 47 ↓ 34.4 °F 49 27 ↑ 32.2°F 26 60 51.9 °F 63 31 23.2°F 35 33 57.6 °F 39 16 15.6°F 22 25 36.3 °F 24
02-15-18 13 12.7°F 16 31 ↓ 47.1 °F 41 23 ↑ 28.4°F 23 47 34.4 °F 52 27 32.2°F 24 54 51.9 °F 62 28 23.2°F 24 32 57.6 °F 32
02-14-18 28 37.8°F 33 44 ↓ 48.8 °F 56 13 12.7°F 26 30 47.1 °F 43 20 28.4°F 24 45 34.4 °F 44 22 32.2°F 18 54 51.9 °F 56
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
% Succ 16.7   0.0     0.0 20.0   0.0     0.0 25.0   0.0     0.0 33.3   33.3     0.0
Ave Error 4.7   4.5 13.9   10.5 4.2   9.4 15.1   11.1 5.7   8.2 12.9   11.9 5.1   7.1 13.0   14.0
Net Error -1.5   0.4 -6.0   0.2 -0.0   4.8 -6.9   0.3 -1.1   1.9 -6.6   -2.1 -1.7   -2.3 -11.6   -11.3
Std Dev 2.8   2.8 8.2   6.5 3.0   6.2 11.2   7.8 5.4   7.1 11.2   10.4 5.1   7.1 13.0   14.0

11PM Forecasts

Updated: 02-19-18 at 11:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
02-19-18 19   18 25 ↓   25 7   10 28   33 15   21 32   32 21   25 38   36
02-18-18 29 21.1°F 33 30 ↓ 57.6 °F 38 19   24 24   33 6   15 27   35 12   15 36   30
02-17-18 29 ↑ 39.4°F 31 63 ↓ 51.9 °F 60 30 ↑ 21.1°F 36 32 57.6 °F 43 17   28 22   31 6   12 28   34
02-16-18 22 ↑ 32.2°F 28 47 ↓ 34.4 °F 53 27 ↑ 39.4°F 27 60 51.9 °F 63 31 21.1°F 41 33 57.6 °F 50 16   35 25   37
02-15-18 13 28.4°F 14 31 ↓ 47.1 °F 40 23 ↑ 32.2°F 22 47 34.4 °F 50 27 39.4°F 22 54 51.9 °F 61 28 21.1°F 33 32 57.6 °F 41
02-14-18 28 24.5°F 36 44 ↓ 48.8 °F 54 13 28.4°F 25 30 47.1 °F 42 20 32.2°F 25 45 34.4 °F 45 22 39.4°F 21 54 51.9 °F 61
02-13-18 21 40.4°F 27 48 ↓ 45.0 °F 65 30 24.5°F 35 43 48.8 °F 57 12 28.4°F 22 27 47.1 °F 41 18 32.2°F 27 45 34.4 °F 47
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
% Succ     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Ave Error 11.1   10.6 12.5   13.1 10.3   10.3 13.8   10.9 12.7   12.7 14.4   8.4 12.8   11.8 12.8   12.8
Net Error -7.3   -2.8 -3.6   4.2 -4.5   -0.1 -5.6   3.0 -7.8   -2.8 -8.0   1.5 -8.2   -3.9 -4.3   1.7
Std Dev 5.9   5.4 8.7   7.8 6.6   6.9 10.5   7.4 11.1   11.6 13.4   7.2 12.8   11.8 12.8   12.8

Forecast Comparison Script Created by Jim McMurray of Juneau County Weather.
WXSIM is a product of Tom Ehrensberger.