Current WXSIM Forecast

Friday, 20-Sep-2019 11:00 pm

Rest of
tonight
Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
Low: 69°
Saturday

Chance rain
Chance rain
High: 85°
Saturday
night
Chance rain
Chance rain
Low: 67°
Sunday

Fog a.m.
Fog a.m.
High: 76°
Sunday
night
Fog late
Fog late
Low: 59°
Monday

Sunny
Sunny
High: 81°
Monday
night
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Low: 64°
Tuesday

Chance rain
Chance rain
High: 80°
Tuesday
night
Fog late
Fog late
Low: 64°

Current NWS Forecast

Sat, 21-Sep-2019 12:14am CDT

Overnight

Overnight: Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Slight Chance Showers And TStorms

Lo 72 °F
Saturday

Saturday: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Chance Showers And TStorms

Hi 87 °F ↓
Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: Showers And Thunderstorms Likely
Showers And TStorms Likely

Lo 60 °F ↑
Sunday

Sunday: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Chance Showers And TStorms

Hi 75 °F
Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear

Lo 56 °F
Monday

Monday: Sunny
Sunny

Hi 82 °F
Monday
Night
Monday Night: Mostly Cloudy then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Mostly Cloudy then Slight Chance Showers And TStorms

Lo 61 °F
Tuesday

Tuesday: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Chance Showers And TStorms

Hi 80 °F
Tuesday
Night
Tuesday Night: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Partly Cloudy
Chance Showers And TStorms then Partly Cloudy

Lo 63 °F



WxSim & NWS Temperature Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)

2AM Forecasts

Updated: 09-20-19 at 2:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-20-19 70 ↑   73 87 ↓   88 71   71 84   82 59   62 77   75 56   58 83   81
09-19-19 71 ↑ 75.7°F 73 89 89.3 °F 94 70   73 86   89 70   69 85   85 62   62 80   81
09-18-19 73 ↑ 77.3°F 72 90 91.5 °F 94 70 75.7°F 71 88 89.3 °F 89 70   72 85   83 68   66 83   84
09-17-19 74 ↑ 78.1°F 76 92 92.6 °F 93 72 ↑ 77.3°F 73 89 91.5 °F 94 70 75.7°F 72 88 89.3 °F 88 71   72 86   80
09-16-19 68 78.9°F 71 94 92.4 °F 90 73 78.1°F 69 92 92.6 °F 89 72 77.3°F 70 88 91.5 °F 87 68 75.7°F 71 87 89.3 °F 85
09-15-19 66 ↑ 78.2°F 71 94 96.9 °F 95 68 78.9°F 70 92 92.4 °F 95 74 78.1°F 72 91 92.6 °F 92 72 77.3°F 69 87 91.5 °F 89
09-14-19 62 ↑ 75.6°F 64 88 87.8 °F 88 65 ↑ 78.2°F 69 91 96.9 °F 94 69 78.9°F 70 91 92.4 °F 91 73 78.1°F 71 91 92.6 °F 91
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 0 0 5 3 0 0 3 1 0 0 3 3 0 0 1 1
% Succ     0.0 83.3   50.0     0.0 60.0   20.0     0.0 75.0   75.0     0.0 33.3   33.3
Ave Error 8.3   6.1 1.2   2.0 8.0   7.2 2.1   2.4 6.3   6.5 2.0   2.0 6.0   6.7 2.8   2.8
Net Error -8.3   -6.1 -0.6   0.6 -8.0   -7.2 -2.1   -0.3 -6.3   -6.5 -2.0   -2.0 -6.0   -6.7 -2.8   -2.8
Std Dev 4.8   3.4 1.0   1.5 5.5   5.0 1.6   1.9 5.4   5.8 1.7   1.7 6.0   6.7 2.8   2.8

5AM Forecasts

Updated: 09-20-19 at 5:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-20-19 70 ↑   90 87 ↓   72 71   84 84   62 59   75 77   58 56   82 83   64
09-19-19 71 ↑ 74.2°F 93 89 89.3 °F 72 70   88 86   68 70   85 85   62 62   81 80   59
09-18-19 73 ↑ 73.7°F 96 89 91.5 °F 72 70 74.2°F 90 88 89.3 °F 73 70   82 84   66 69   83 83   64
09-17-19 74 77.1°F 94 91 92.6 °F 73 72 ↑ 73.7°F 94 89 91.5 °F 72 69 74.2°F 88 88 89.3 °F 72 71   80 84   69
09-16-19 68 ↑ 76.2°F 93 93 92.4 °F 74 72 ↑ 77.1°F 92 91 92.6 °F 69 73 73.7°F 87 89 91.5 °F 70 69 74.2°F 87 89 89.3 °F 71
09-15-19 66 ↑ 78.2°F 95 94 96.9 °F 71 68 76.2°F 96 92 92.4 °F 72 74 77.1°F 92 91 92.6 °F 69 72 73.7°F 89 87 91.5 °F 64
09-14-19 62 ↑ 71.5°F 88 87 87.8 °F 69 66 ↑ 78.2°F 94 90 96.9 °F 71 70 76.2°F 94 91 92.4 °F 73 73 77.1°F 91 90 92.6 °F 70
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 0 4 0 1 0 3 0 1 0 3 0 1 0 1 0
% Succ 16.7   0.0 66.7   0.0 20.0   0.0 60.0   0.0 25.0   0.0 75.0   0.0 33.3   0.0 33.3   0.0
Ave Error 6.2   18.0 1.5   19.9 6.3   17.3 2.5   21.1 3.8   15.0 1.7   20.5 3.7   14.0 2.5   22.8
Net Error -6.2   18.0 -1.3   -19.9 -6.3   17.3 -2.5   -21.1 -3.8   15.0 -1.7   -20.5 -3.7   14.0 -2.5   -22.8
Std Dev 4.6   7.6 1.1   8.6 4.6   11.1 1.8   13.6 3.4   13.0 1.5   17.8 3.7   14.0 2.5   22.8

8AM Forecasts

Updated: 09-20-19 at 8:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-20-19 88 ↓   87 71   72 84   86 59   63 77   72 56   58 83   81 63   64
09-19-19 88 89.3 °F 90 68 72.4°F 68 86 ↓   84 71   67 87   84 61   61 79   77 59   59
09-18-19 89 91.5 °F 93 70 65.8°F 72 88 89.3 °F 90 70 72.4°F 73 84   84 69   69 83   85 60   65
09-17-19 91 92.6 °F 92 72 ↑ 75.5°F 73 89 91.5 °F 93 69 65.8°F 72 88 89.3 °F 88 71 72.4°F 72 84   82 66   68
09-16-19 93 92.4 °F 95 72 ↑ 74.8°F 71 91 92.6 °F 90 73 75.5°F 69 89 91.5 °F 90 69 65.8°F 72 89 89.3 °F 89 71 72.4°F 71
09-15-19 92 96.9 °F 93 68 72.8°F 71 91 ↓ 92.4 °F 95 74 74.8°F 72 92 92.6 °F 91 72 75.5°F 70 87 91.5 °F 90 66 65.8°F 69
09-14-19 87 87.8 °F 89 66 ↑ 68.9°F 69 90 96.9 °F 91 70 72.8°F 69 91 92.4 °F 90 73 74.8°F 70 90 92.6 °F 90 71 75.5°F 69
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 4 4 0 2 3 2 1 1 3 3 2 1 1 2 2 1
% Succ 66.7   66.7     33.3 60.0   40.0 20.0   20.0 75.0   75.0 50.0   25.0 33.3   66.7 66.7   33.3
Ave Error 2.0   1.8 3.8   3.1 2.7   2.7 2.3   4.0 1.5   1.7 2.5   4.2 2.5   1.5 2.0   3.7
Net Error -1.8   0.3 -2.4   -1.0 -2.7   -0.7 -1.1   -1.3 -1.5   -1.7 -0.9   -1.1 -2.5   -1.5 -1.9   -1.6
Std Dev 1.6   1.3 1.7   2.0 1.9   2.0 1.5   3.3 1.3   1.5 2.2   4.1 2.5   1.5 2.0   3.7

11AM Forecasts

Updated: 09-20-19 at 11:00 am
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-20-19 88 ↓   84 71   70 84   85 59   64 77   72 56   58 83   81 63   64
09-19-19 88 89.3 °F 85 68 72.4°F 67 86 ↓   84 71   67 87   84 61   61 79   77 59   59
09-18-19 89 91.5 °F 92 70 65.7°F 71 88 89.3 °F 90 70 72.4°F 73 84   84 69   70 83   84 60   65
09-17-19 91 92.6 °F 92 72 ↑ 75.5°F 72 89 91.5 °F 91 69 65.7°F 72 88 89.3 °F 91 71 72.4°F 73 84   84 66   69
09-16-19 93 92.4 °F 95 72 ↑ 74.8°F 72 91 92.6 °F 90 73 75.5°F 70 89 91.5 °F 90 69 65.7°F 71 89 89.3 °F 89 71 72.4°F 71
09-15-19 92 96.9 °F 93 68 72.8°F 72 91 ↓ 92.4 °F 94 74 74.8°F 73 92 92.6 °F 91 72 75.5°F 70 87 91.5 °F 90 66 65.7°F 69
09-14-19 87 87.8 °F 87 66 ↑ 68.9°F 70 90 96.9 °F 92 70 72.8°F 70 91 92.4 °F 89 73 74.8°F 70 90 92.6 °F 90 71 75.5°F 69
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 4 3 0 2 3 3 1 2 3 3 2 1 1 2 2 1
% Succ 66.7   50.0     33.3 60.0   60.0 20.0   40.0 75.0   75.0 50.0   25.0 33.3   66.7 66.7   33.3
Ave Error 2.0   2.1 3.8   3.2 2.7   2.1 2.4   3.4 1.5   2.1 2.5   4.1 2.5   1.5 2.1   3.7
Net Error -1.8   -1.1 -2.4   -1.0 -2.7   -1.1 -1.0   -0.6 -1.5   -1.2 -0.9   -1.1 -2.5   -1.5 -1.9   -1.5
Std Dev 1.6   1.7 1.7   2.1 1.9   1.6 1.6   3.0 1.3   1.8 2.2   3.9 2.5   1.5 2.1   3.7

2PM Forecasts

Updated: 09-20-19 at 2:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-20-19 88 ↓   87 71   68 84   83 59   65 77   71 56   58 83   80 63   63
09-19-19 88 89.3 °F 90 68 72.4°F 73 86 ↓   90 71   70 87   87 61   66 79   77 59   60
09-18-19 89 91.5 °F 94 70 65.7°F 72 88 89.3 °F 90 70 72.4°F 73 84   81 69   70 83   82 60   63
09-17-19 91 92.6 °F 92 72 ↑ 75.5°F 72 89 91.5 °F 91 69 65.7°F 72 88 89.3 °F 84 71 72.4°F 70 84   81 66   68
09-16-19 93 92.4 °F 94 72 ↑ 74.8°F 75 91 92.6 °F 90 73 75.5°F 71 89 91.5 °F 90 69 65.7°F 73 89 89.3 °F 83 71 72.4°F 73
09-15-19 92 96.9 °F 95 68 72.8°F 73 91 ↓ 92.4 °F 95 74 74.8°F 73 92 92.6 °F 92 72 75.5°F 70 87 91.5 °F 89 66 65.7°F 65
09-14-19 87 87.8 °F 86 66 ↑ 68.9°F 69 90 96.9 °F 92 70 72.8°F 70 91 92.4 °F 93 73 74.8°F 73 90 92.6 °F 91 71 75.5°F 71
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 4 5 0 4 3 2 1 2 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 2
% Succ 66.7   83.3     66.7 60.0   40.0 20.0   40.0 75.0   75.0 50.0   25.0 33.3   33.3 66.7   66.7
Ave Error 2.0   1.5 3.8   1.8 2.7   2.3 2.4   3.2 1.5   2.0 2.5   4.3 2.5   3.5 2.1   1.9
Net Error -1.8   0.1 -2.4   0.6 -2.7   -0.9 -1.0   -0.4 -1.5   -1.7 -0.9   -0.6 -2.5   -3.5 -1.9   -1.5
Std Dev 1.6   0.9 1.7   2.3 1.9   1.8 1.6   2.8 1.3   2.4 2.2   3.8 2.5   3.5 2.1   1.9

5PM Forecasts

Updated: 09-20-19 at 5:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-20-19 89 ↓   68 72   83 87 ↓   65 60   71 75   58 56   80 82   63 61   82
09-19-19 90 ↓ 89.3 °F 74 70 72.4°F 89 86   71 70   84 87   66 60   76 78   60 57   82
09-18-19 91 91.5 °F 71 71 65.7°F 89 89 89.3 °F 72 70 72.4°F 82 86   69 70   82 85   62 62   82
09-17-19 92 ↓ 92.6 °F 73 73 ↑ 75.5°F 91 90 91.5 °F 72 70 65.7°F 82 88 89.3 °F 70 70 72.4°F 80 85   68 68   80
09-16-19 93 ↓ 92.4 °F 76 74 ↑ 74.8°F 92 92 92.6 °F 71 72 75.5°F 90 89 91.5 °F 73 70 65.7°F 83 88 89.3 °F 73 71 72.4°F 82
09-15-19 92 ↓ 96.9 °F 73 69 72.8°F 95 94 92.4 °F 71 73 74.8°F 89 92 92.6 °F 69 72 75.5°F 90 88 91.5 °F 65 68 65.7°F 83
09-14-19 87 87.8 °F 69 66 ↑ 68.9°F 93 90 96.9 °F 70 70 72.8°F 94 91 92.4 °F 73 73 74.8°F 92 90 92.6 °F 72 71 75.5°F 87
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 5 0 1 0 4 0 1 0 3 0 1 0 1 0 1 0
% Succ 83.3   0.0 16.7   0.0 80.0   0.0 20.0   0.0 75.0   0.0 25.0   0.0 33.3   0.0 33.3   0.0
Ave Error 1.4   19.1 3.0   19.8 2.2   21.3 3.0   15.2 1.5   20.2 3.0   14.2 2.5   21.1 2.7   12.8
Net Error -0.9   -19.1 -1.2   19.8 -1.5   -21.3 -1.2   15.2 -1.5   -20.2 -0.9   14.2 -2.5   -21.1 -1.2   12.8
Std Dev 1.7   8.3 1.8   8.6 1.8   13.6 2.0   9.9 1.3   17.5 2.6   12.7 2.5   21.1 2.7   12.8

8PM Forecasts

Updated: 09-20-19 at 8:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-20-19 72   67 87 ↓   86 60 ↑   66 75   76 56   59 82   82 61   64 80   80
09-19-19 70 ↑ 72.4°F 74 86 89.3 °F 89 70   72 87   84 60   64 78   76 57   62 83   85
09-18-19 71 65.7°F 69 89 91.5 °F 87 70 72.4°F 71 86 89.3 °F 77 70   68 85   85 62   65 80   81
09-17-19 73 ↑ 75.5°F 73 90 92.6 °F 90 70 65.7°F 72 88 91.5 °F 84 70 72.4°F 72 85 89.3 °F 80 68   69 83   82
09-16-19 74 ↑ 74.8°F 75 92 92.4 °F 92 72 ↑ 75.5°F 72 89 92.6 °F 92 70 65.7°F 70 88 91.5 °F 88 71 72.4°F 73 86 89.3 °F 82
09-15-19 69 72.8°F 74 94 96.9 °F 97 73 74.8°F 73 92 92.4 °F 93 72 75.5°F 70 88 92.6 °F 90 68 65.7°F 70 87 91.5 °F 88
09-14-19 66 ↑ 68.9°F 71 94 87.8 °F 93 68 72.8°F 70 92 96.9 °F 94 74 74.8°F 73 91 92.4 °F 90 72 75.5°F 70 87 92.6 °F 90
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 3 1 3 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 0 1 1 0 0
% Succ 16.7   50.0 16.7   50.0 20.0   40.0 20.0   40.0 25.0   50.0 25.0   0.0 33.3   33.3     0.0
Ave Error 3.0   1.8 3.0   2.2 3.4   3.2 3.1   4.8 2.8   3.0 3.5   4.5 2.4   3.5 4.5   4.5
Net Error -1.2   1.0 -0.9   -0.4 -1.6   -0.6 -3.1   -4.5 -0.6   -0.9 -3.5   -4.5 -0.9   -0.2 -4.5   -4.5
Std Dev 1.8   1.2 1.6   1.9 2.2   2.6 2.0   5.0 2.4   2.9 3.0   4.6 2.4   3.5 4.5   4.5

11PM Forecasts

Updated: 09-20-19 at 11:00 pm
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-20-19 72   69 87 ↓   85 60 ↑   67 75   76 56   59 82   81 61   64 80   80
09-19-19 70 ↑ 71.7°F 75 86 89.3 °F 89 70   72 87   85 60   63 78   76 57   61 83   85
09-18-19 71 ↑ 78.8°F 73 89 91.5 °F 91 70 71.7°F 72 86 89.3 °F 81 70   70 85   87 62   65 80   83
09-17-19 73 ↑ 79.3°F 72 90 92.6 °F 93 70 78.8°F 71 88 91.5 °F 87 70 71.7°F 72 85 89.3 °F 81 68   69 83   83
09-16-19 74 ↑ 79.4°F 76 92 92.4 °F 92 72 ↑ 79.3°F 72 89 92.6 °F 93 70 78.8°F 70 88 91.5 °F 87 71 71.7°F 72 86 89.3 °F 81
09-15-19 68 79.9°F 74 94 96.9 °F 96 73 79.4°F 73 92 92.4 °F 93 72 79.3°F 71 88 92.6 °F 90 68 78.8°F 70 87 91.5 °F 88
09-14-19 66 ↑ 80.1°F 71 94 87.8 °F 95 68 79.9°F 71 92 96.9 °F 95 74 79.4°F 73 91 92.4 °F 90 72 79.3°F 70 87 92.6 °F 91
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 1 0 1 5 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1
% Succ 16.7   0.0 16.7   83.3 20.0   20.0 20.0   60.0 25.0   25.0 25.0   0.0 33.3   33.3     33.3
Ave Error 7.9   5.8 3.0   1.6 7.2   6.1 3.1   3.1 5.8   6.0 3.5   4.5 6.3   6.1 4.5   4.5
Net Error -7.9   -4.7 -0.9   0.9 -7.2   -6.0 -3.1   -2.7 -5.8   -5.8 -3.5   -4.5 -6.3   -5.9 -4.5   -4.5
Std Dev 4.6   2.8 1.6   1.2 5.2   4.8 2.0   3.3 5.4   5.9 3.0   4.3 6.3   6.1 4.5   4.5

Forecast Comparison Script Created by Jim McMurray of Juneau County Weather.
WXSIM is a product of Tom Ehrensberger.