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FORECAST DISCUSSION
Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion... 
.DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 PM CDT Thu May 13
2021  Early afternoon analysis showed a weak
shortwave trough sliding through the northwest
flow aloft, bringing some light showers to
portions of northeast Nebraska. These have been on
a dissipating trend all day and will continue to
do so through the remainder of the afternoon. At
the surface, southerly flow/warm air advection was
in full swing on the back side of surface high
pressure departing to the east. Temperatures as of
3 PM were generally in the mid to upper 60s,
though a few spots had cracked that 70 degree
mark.  Tonight, another shortwave trough will
slide southeast through the area, with the nose of
the low level jet/moisture transport pointed into
central and then eastern Nebraska. This will lead
to additional shower development, along with
potentially a few thunderstorms given perhaps a
few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE sneaking into the
forecast area. Would think with such little
instability, especially this far east, it would be
tough to get much in the way of strong storms,
much less severe, but the HRRR has remained
persistent in producing some 35 to 45 kt gusts on
the northern edge of the convection. While forcing
seems decent between the aforementioned low level
jet/moisture transport and shortwave energy, along
with continued warm air advection, would really
expect to see a stronger moisture transport signal
or higher MUCAPE values given the strength of the
convection depicted by the HRRR (and most of the
other CAMs). One "positive" going for potential
stronger winds is steep low level lapse rates, but
by the time the storms get this far east it may be
tough to get any of those stronger winds through
the surface inversion. Something to definitely
keep an eye on though as we go through the
evening.  We`ll remain in an unsettled, but warmer
pattern through the remainder of the forecast
period. A closed low will move onshore in the
Friday/Saturday timeframe and shift into the
Desert Southwest over the weekend. Meanwhile, a
surface boundary looks to set up west to east
somewhere near or south of the KS border,
oscillating north and south each day while various
bits of shortwave energy eject out of the
aforementioned low and interact with the boundary
to produce showers and storms. Really the name of
the game in forecasting the heaviest precip will
be finding where that boundary sets up each day,
which will likely be impacted by the previous
night`s/morning`s convection. Model consensus
suggests it stays south of the forecast area,
which means we`ll have a tough time getting much
in the way of instability this far north.
Therefore, wouldn`t anticipate much for a severe
weather threat, but will likely see periodic
showers with occasional thunderstorms, though no
day looks like a washout through at least Tuesday.
Otherwise, temperatures look to consistently top
out in the 70s for most of the area from Saturday
onward. 

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

IMMEDIATE FORECAST
Tonight

Tonight: Rain Showers Likely
Rain Showers Likely
Lo 52 °F
Rain showers likely between 11pm and 4am, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. South southeast wind around 13 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Friday

Friday: Showers And Thunderstorms Likely then Mostly Cloudy
Showers And TStorms Likely then Mostly Cloudy
Hi 70 °F
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. South southeast wind 5 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
THREE-DAY OUTLOOK
Friday
Night
Friday Night: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Chance Showers And TStorms
Lo 53 °F
Saturday

Saturday: Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Slight Chance Showers And TStorms then Chance Showers And TStorms
Hi 72 °F
Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Chance Showers And TStorms
Lo 55 °F
Sunday

Sunday: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Chance Showers And TStorms
Hi 71 °F
Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Chance Showers And TStorms
Lo 54 °F
Monday

Monday: Slight Chance Rain Showers
Slight Chance Rain Showers
Hi 75 °F