LINCOLN, NE Weather

(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 351 PM CDT Fri
Sep 20 2019  Water vapor imagery this afternoon
showing large scale flow aloft consisting of a
large high pressure dome situated over the eastern
half of the CONUS along with a well amplified
longwave trough across the western half and an
embedded circulation centered over the Great
Basic.  Meanwhile surface low pressure was
centered over ND with a strong thrust of Gulf
moisture into the Central Plains. Morning PW plow
revealed 1.4" at KOAX and 1.6" at KTOP. Latest obs
were showing, for the most part, dew points around
70 over the CWA.  Models are in agreement large
scale pattern will become more progressive in
nature beginning tonight when Great Basin upper
low gets ejected and moves toward the western
Dakotas late tonight. With this, synoptic scale
lift increases over the region in conjunction with
associated cold front approaching the CWA. Models
are in decent agreement showing precip breaking
out within the warm sector ahead of the front
early Saturday morning. The boundary is progged to
become quasi-stationary Saturday afternoon and
take on an orientation from east-west over the
southern CWA.  With near stagnant differential
divergence acting as a forcing mechanism,
conditions will become quite favorable for heavy
rainfall Saturday night into early Sunday morning.
As of now, models are pointing to the CWA for
possible excessive rainfall where precip
efficiency will be most prevalent. PWs
approximately over 150% of normal will phase with
deep low level warm cloud layer and max omega.
Precip activity south of I-80 should be coming to
a gradual close through early Sunday morning. As
of now, rainfall totals over 2 inches appear
possible over Nemaha/Pawnee/Richardson counties in
NE and Page county in IA. Thus, a Flash Flood
Watch will be in effect Saturday night into early
Sunday morning over portions of southeast NE and
southwest IA.  Increasing heights building in from
the west will result in very pleasant conditions
Sunday afternoon into Monday.  Highs on Saturday
will be in the low 80s. On Sunday and Monday highs
will be in the 70s.  .LONG TERM...(Monday night
through Friday) Issued at 351 PM CDT Fri Sep 20
2019  Precip chances in the extended periods will
come in part to several impulse associated with
the next system digging down the western states
and eventually bottoming out over the southwestern
CONUS. The GFS and ECM differ slightly with timing
of main circulation into the Central Plains. GFS
progs in into the CWA early Friday morning while
the ECM brings it through Friday afternoon.  Highs
on Tuesday will be in the upper 80s. Highs in the
low/mid 70s then Wednesday through Friday. 

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion